FOR their own sakes, China and the Republic of the Philippines (RP) had to come to the table recently: the 6th Bilateral Consultation initiated in 2016 by President Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping. It had to come to this.
The pot had truly boiled. Philippine patrol boats won’t budge from the China Sea to protect our fisherfolks. Two influential Cabinet secretaries, the Senate, the president’s own party head (Senator Manny Pacquiao), most Filipinos and a disgusted influential caste of former generals and military officers were pissed at China.
President Duterte turned a bit hawkish by stating the Philippines “will not move our ships in the area.” UP Professor Jay L. Batongbacal had earlier warned that the (satellite-proven) presence of over 200 Chinese vessels manned by their militia in the Julian Felipe Reef could result in a China takeover of the area similar to what happened in 1995 in the Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal.
US State Department Spokesman Ned Price on April 8 categorically warned China that “any armed attack on the Philippines, including that in the West Philippine Sea” will trigger our obligations under the RP-US Mutual Defense Treaty.
Perhaps China may be beginning to feel that its continued intransigence at sea would only strengthen the Quadrilateral Security Alliance with US allies like Japan, Australia, India and South Korea ( and even angered France and Germany)and would even challenge China’s security over the Pacific Ocean, South China Sea (SCS) and the Indian Ocean.
It seems that while China might be aggressive in her words and posturing, she is not about to go to war, either.
Down the road, the interests of China in that area of the world are quite obvious.
According to The Diplomat, China’s interests in the SCS are the “3 P’s” of politics, petroleum and protein (fish).
China needs the area to house its nuclear ballistic missiles submarines as a Pacific Ocean nuclear deterrence versus America. Economically, it needs “presence” to ensure that America’s allies do not block the terrain as this is where one-third of global commerce flows through. (America feels the same way vice versa)
Although, China is 70-percent coal-dependent for its energy sources and only about 30 percent on oil, the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and the environmental burden of coal make oil and gas crucial to the future of the Chinese economy of 1.4 billion people, even if it is seeking nuclear and renewable sources as part of the solutions.
China has very little oil reserves (less than 2 percent of the world total) or a mere 25 billion barrels of proven reserves while it imports annually about 239 billion barrels (77 percent over 2015 levels), 60 percent coming from the Middle East and Russia. Now, according to the US Energy Information Journal, the SCS underwater minerals are composed of 14 billion barrels of natural gas, 33 billion barrels of oil with total reserves of 33 billion barrels.
The SCS is also a fish haven, accounting for 12 percent of the global fish caught but where half of the world’s fishing vessels are located. RP accuses China of illegally fishing 240,000 kilos of fish a day in the area.
China is the biggest fish-eating nation in the world with yearly consumption of 65 million tons, followed far second by Europe at only 13 million tons and the US at a very small 7 million tons. Of the 65 million tons, China produces 73 percent of it through aquaculture and 27 percent by fish capture at open seas.
China’s problem, according to the One Earth publication, is that by the year 2030 China’s consumption of fish will outstrip supply, leaving China with worries about where to fish next. SCS is one big source.
Worldwide, China has engaged—from Asia to Africa—the so-called “soft power” to influence nations to the fold of Beijing. This is done through financing and engineering tie-ups of highways, buildings and bridges, forging humanitarian assistance to 150 nations and sending 36 medical teams to 34 nations.
It has given Covid vaccination donations (in the millions) and produced for the world 200 billion face masks, 2 billion protective suits and 800 million face shields amid the pandemic.
“Soft power,” as coined by Joseph Nye in the 1980s, means “the ability of a country to persuade others to do what it wants without force or coercion.”
One way to look at it is that China at the end of the day is really a Giant Businessman who wants to outstrip the US and be the dominant economy in the world soon. Thus, one can deduce that for all of China’s moves—aggressive as they appear—such is not meant to foment a new war.
Such a war will only serve to make every major nation poorer. That is not China’s dream.
If that is China’s mindset, then a deterrent—political or military in the SCS—is a sound tactic to follow for America and her allies (including RP). Recall that it was this same “balance of terror” between the USA and the USSR in terms of nuclear armaments that prevented an actual war from happening; or preventing a Cold War to become a real war.
Perhaps, only an equal amount of aggression among our allies can also bring China intermittently to the bargaining table where discussions of mutual interest (rather than one-sided bullying) will be a permanent agenda among themselves. And save ourselves a pointless, no-winners war.
Zoilo “Bingo” Dejaresco, a former banker, is a financial consultant, media practitioner and book author. He is a Life and Media member of Finex. His views here, however, are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Finex and the BusinessMirror. Contact Dejaresco via [email protected]
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