IT is now exactly one year, two months and 29 days, or a few days short of 15 months, since the first community quarantine was imposed in the country March 15, 2020.
We’ve already seen various levels of quarantines that everyone thought were just reincarnations of a popular kind of local rum. Or even lockdowns (granular, localized, special concern) that it seemed grappling with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) disease was like a wrestling match.
It was a painful struggle for everyone, so the news of Covid-19 vaccines arriving in the country brought some promise that this virus and the accompanying lethal disease it carries with it could soon die a natural death.
The vaccines will come
IN February 2021, the first batch of these vaccines began to arrive in the country like the 600,000 doses of CoronaVac vaccines created by Chinese biopharma firm Sinovac, a donation by the Chinese government. In March, 525,600 doses of the AstraZeneca brand arrived under the Covax Facility of the World Health Organization (WHO) as a donation, and 1.4 million (1 million procured, 400,000 donated) doses, again from Sinovac.
In April, Sinovac delivered another 1.5 million doses, while in May 80,000 doses of Sputnik V vaccines from Russia (procured) landed in the country, plus another 2 million from Sinovac (procured), and 2,030,400 doses from AstraZeneca and 193,050 doses from Pfizer BioNTech arrived, both under Covax.
According to National Task Force Against Covid-19 Chief Implementer and Vaccine Czar Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr., 11 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines will arrive this June, with 5.5 million from Sinovac, one million of Sputnik V, 250,000 doses from Moderna, 2,280,00 of Pfizer-BioNTech and 2,028,000 of AstraZeneca from the Covax facility.
And by far, he said the delivery of 2.2 million of Pfizer-BioNTech and 1 million CoronaVac doses last week was the biggest single-day vaccine delivery in the country.
The vaccine czar still expects around 11 million doses to be delivered next month, and an additional 17 million doses by August. His estimate is that by September or October, the full inoculation of the A4 priority group—the economic frontliners—should have been completed.
So far, Galvez said that as of June 7, the government already administered more than 6 million jabs to priority groups A1 (healthcare workers), A2 (senior citizens), A3 (persons with comorbidities), and A4 (economic frontliners), while 1.6 million are already fully vaccinated or received both doses.
Are we ready to go back to normal?
WITH these vaccines now arriving slowly but surely in the Philippines, OCTA Research fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, OP, a molecular biologist and Catholic priest, said in a recent virtual media event that in the Philippines, it is important to raise the percentage of vaccination so that the percentage of viral transmission will go down. “It is a gradual process or transition as the vaccination rollout increases.”
He also explained two concepts: “containment” and “herd immunity”, and posed the question: “How much of the population should be vaccinated?”
To achieve containment, 40 to 50 percent of the people should be vaccinated, with an attack rate of one per 100,000 population. For herd immunity, it should be 70 to 80 percent with an attack rate of practically near zero, he said.
When containment happens, it protects the people because future surges will dramatically decrease, the economy will be allowed to reopen, and it means vaccinated persons can gather normally without masks or face shields or even physical distancing. He cited the case of the US, which is still in containment and has not yet reached herd immunity, but many states have already lifted restrictions like the wearing of masks.
Fr. Austriaco said outbreaks may still occur or cluster in containment, but it would be difficult for the virus to spread.
As for herd immunity, he said a herd of vaccinated people “protects” the unvaccinated ones from the virus. With herd immunity, he said, the virus also starves and dies so it can no longer spread and it will allow people to go back to the “old normal.” However, he noted that the presence of the Covid-19 variants poses a challenge because of high transmissibility, so the threshold now increases to higher than 80 percent to achieve herd immunity.
He explained as well that for complete herd immunity to happen, it should be built at every level of society, in each household or family, barangay, office or business, municipality or city, with 70 percent vaccination at every level. “What will happen now is we have bubbles of herd immunity, and slowly the different herds will come together, and the hope is that the entire country will become one giant herd immune against Covid-19,” Fr. Austriaco emphasized.
“This is the advantage of herd immunity. We can forget about Covid-19, and herd immunity will end the pandemic.”
In terms of numbers, Fr. Austriaco said that to achieve containment, the vaccination strategy is to focus on a priority area first such as the National Capital Region (NCR) and eight other areas (Batangas, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Pampanga, Rizal, and also Metro Cebu and Metro Davao) now called NCR+8. With an estimated population of 37 million in NCR+8, around 33 million doses are needed to fully vaccinate 45 percent of the population, which is about 16.6 million people.
For herd immunity, about 52 million doses are needed to vaccinate 70 percent, or 25.9 million (every adult in NCR+8), of the 37 million population. How long will it take to administer 52 million doses? It depends on the number of doses administered, he said. If it’s 250,000 per day in NCR+8, containment will happen sometime in October, and herd immunity will be reached before Christmas if vaccination is done at 200,000 to 300,000 doses daily starting June 1 to November 30, 2021.
So, are you ready to be vaccinated? Or, are you one of those who think that Covid-19 vaccines will put nanochips in our bodies or make us turn into human magnets? Or, are you waiting for more developments, given that these vaccines are all under emergency use authorization and the usual full range of clinical trials has not happened because of the urgent response required of the crisis? So far, many are already itching to go out without masks or shields, and it can only be achieved if at least 95 percent or higher of Filipinos are fully vaccinated.
Take your pick.
Images courtesy of Inkdropcreative1 | Dreamstime.com and NJKOZUB/CC BY-SA 4.0
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