THE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) on Wednesday warned policymakers that families may sink into poverty and hunger if they insist on keeping several sectors of the economy shut.
Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez told reporters he favors shifting the whole country to modified general community quarantine (MGCQ) by March, as proposed by the economic team. He said the economy can no longer afford taking another month of operating with some sectors closed.
“It is about time we move to MGCQ after a year of lockdown. Lockdown was supposed to buy us time to prepare our health system and improve contact tracing, and trace, test treat,” he said. “It is almost a year.”
On Monday, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) asked President Duterte to lift quarantine restrictions nationwide by March as agreed upon with Cabinet members. Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua argued for the need to ease protocols to allow business establishments to reopen and, in the process, call back their workers.
Likewise, the Neda recommended increasing the capacity of public transport units; adjusting the age group of those permitted to leave homes, from 15 to 65 years old, to 5 to 70 years old; and authorizing the pilot of face-to-face classes.
Lopez backed the plan submitted by the Neda to the President, and said the economy needs to reopen to its full capacity the soonest. He claimed the national rates for Covid-19 infections and deaths are going down, and this signals an opportunity to relax quarantine measures and boost economic activities.
“As we see the Covid cases generally going down even with gradual and recalibrated reopening of economy, we should continue gradual and safe reopening of sectors and further relaxation to MGCQ, with very localized lockdown where [it is] needed, so we can open the other parts of the economy and bring back more jobs for our kababayans,” Lopez said.
“The Philippines was second fastest economy prior to pandemic,” he reminded. “Now, while the economy is on recovery, the Philippines still had the biggest decline in GDP and in employment among Asean neighbors and peers.”
For Lopez, there’s an urgency for the government to give breathing space to Metro Manila, as it is the nation’s capital and, therefore, central business region.
“Metro Manila has a very weak recovery, worse in employment and hunger recovery, and that means more urban poor. The damages to malnutrition and other health and social issues will be irreversible,” the trade chief said.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) in October reported the unemployment rate in the country went up to 8.7 percent, from 4.6 percent during the same month last year.
This figure translated to about 3.8 million Filipinos left jobless in a time of economic decline. The region with the highest jobless rate was Metro Manila at 12.4 percent.
Salceda: GDP boost
Also on Wednesday, the cochairman of the House Economic Stimulus and Recovery Cluster said shifting to nationwide MGCQ and maintaining it until the end of the year will boost the country’s GDP by around 2.3 percent.
Albay Rep. Joey Sarte Salceda said while he does not object to the proposal of Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua that the country’s restrictions be eased to a nationwide MGCQ, the reopening is best accompanied by a strong vaccination program for health-care workers and enough supply of public transport.
“The impact of the shift to MGCQ will not be as large as quick vaccine rollout, because only NCR and a few provinces and cities are still in GCQ. The vaccination for our health-care workers must go hand-in-hand with reopening. It will ensure that we have the health-care human resource needed to address any spike due to loosened restrictions,” Salceda said.
“Workers don’t operate in isolation. Their wages come from customers, and that depends on consumer confidence that they will be safe. So, we always have to bear in mind that the economy was just a casualty. This is a public health problem. The solution to the economic symptoms of this public health emergency will still be in public health,” Salceda added.
According to him, the GDP impact of the shift still depends on how quickly public confidence can be restored due to vaccination.
“At best, this will boost nominal GDP by around 2.3 percent for the whole year, assuming we can keep MGCQ. That’s a very generous estimate that considers no sudden shifts back to GCQ, or no sudden spikes in infections. The economic impact is probably closer to between 0.5 percent and 1.4 percent, which is not nothing, but it can be better with a more ambitious vaccination plan,” Salceda said.
Salceda also urged the national government to prepare a “national warchest” for vaccine logistics.
“My concern now is I’m not seeing enough preparation on the logistics side, so even if the vaccines come, I’m not sure we can deliver without delays. We have to have that covered, and I think Secretary Chua should be enlisted in the time-and-motion planning for vaccine rollout,” Salceda suggested.
Transportation
Public transport is also essential as around 573,000 more workers may be required to go to their workplaces as part of the loosening of restrictions, Salceda said.
“We should restore public transport supply. Enough rides are the best way to ensure that there will be no overcrowding in our transport systems. Enough supply is the best way to keep rides safe, in a systems perspective,” Salceda added.
“Jeepney routes in Metro Manila have not been fully restored; Tricycle restrictions are still in place [2 seats instead of three]. These are essential connectors between mass transit and buses,” he noted.
“I do not want a partial restoration while we already have MGCQ. We need to increase public transport at the same time we shift to MGCQ. Otherwise, we will be making life very difficult and unsafe for many workers,” Salceda added.
Aggressive
The lawmaker also wants more aggressive communications efforts to persuade the public to be open to vaccination.
“This needs social marketing, probably by example of our leadership. I’m alarmed by the hesitation of our people to get these vaccines,” Salceda said.
According to a Pulse Asia survey (Nov. 23 to Dec. 2, 2020, nationwide), only 32 percent are willing to receive a vaccine, 47 percent are unwilling, and 21 percent are undecided. An NCR poll by the OCTA Research Group, meanwhile, found that only 25 percent are willing to be vaccinated, 28 percent are unwilling, and 45 percent are undecided.
“One problem is that it’s the working class who are hesitant to take the vaccine. The upper class have their work-from-home arrangements, but the working class will need the protection the vaccine affords. So, we have to work hard to convince them. In my district, I’ve already deployed Mayors and civil society groups to do that work, but we need a national effort to make people comfortable about vaccines,” Salceda added.
Velasco backs Neda
For his part, Speaker Lord Allan Velasco backed the Neda’s proposal shifting the restriction to MGCQ.
“I personally agree with Neda’s proposal to place the entire country under MGCQ next month. It is about time we safely relax pandemic restrictions to lessen the impact of Covid-19 on the economy,” said Velasco.
“With vaccines on the way, we should start encouraging our countrymen to patronize businesses again while strictly adhering to minimum health and safety protocols,” he added.
