ONLINE classes could result in production losses of P11 trillion over a 40-year period, according to estimates of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), which underscored the need to provide for a hybrid setup allowing face-to-face classes in less risky areas.
In a Senate Finance Committee Hearing, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said the losses will be spread over four decades, which is the working lifespan of individuals.
The estimate, Chua told the BusinessMirror, takes into account the low quality of education in the Philippines, which means that only 37 percent of the learning is absorbed via online classes. In the United States, 52 percent is retained by students through virtual classes.
“What we are seeing is that the lack of face-to-face [classes] will limit the learning ability of students and that has a permanent effect over the lifespan of the student while he is in the labor force. With the best data that we have, we have an estimate that productivity loss over the next 40 years is going to be around P11 trillion for the one year where we had no face-to-face schooling,” Chua said.
Preventing further production losses is one of the reasons for Neda’s support of piloting face-to-face classes. Chua said this has already been planned for February and then August but due to the surge in cases during these periods, the government had to postpone the move which is now slated for January 2022.
“We had the plans, it was already approved but deferred twice. But we are still keen to plot as soon as we can once this surge is over in the least risky areas. So my position is, I also don’t know what to expect but I would like to pilot so that I’ll know what will happen,” Chua said.
ADB estimates
Chua said the Neda estimates are higher than the ADB estimates because of inflation adjustments. However, Chua assured that the method of ADB and Neda are the same except for the adjustment for inflation in the government estimates.
The authors noted the recent Asian Development Outlook (ADO) estimates that school closures will lead to $1.25 trillion in future earnings losses in Asia and the Pacific. This assumes that every student loses $180 every year from their expected future annual earnings.
In the same study, ADB estimated loss in lifetime earnings of Filipino children at as high as $36.138 billion under the “pessimistic” scenario. The loss in lifetime earnings could reach $26.904 billion under the optimistic scenario and $30.696 billion in the intermediate scenario.
Bakuna bubbles
Chua said he supported the pilot of “bakuna bubbles” proposed by the business community. He said implementing a pilot of this scheme could provide more information on which policies work and which ones do not.
He said the pilot of the bakuna bubble scheme can be done “across the board” in Metro Manila and “gradually and slowly” expand its implementation. The country could start from a capacity of 10 percent to 20 percent, and so on.
“I would not start with 50 percent or 100 percent,” Chua said.
Chua said while the situation is still volatile at this time, some efforts must be made, such as ramping up the vaccination drive to make it possible to protect millions from contracting a severe case of the virus.
Other measures include social distancing and dining out or in places that are not well ventilated. These are the most common reasons for the spread of Covid-19.
With these safeguards in place, Chua said it is likely that activities such as dining out will not be possible for the remainder of the year.
“I think over the medium term, the 100 [percent capacity] might not be possible. But it doesn’t necessarily mean they will lose the business. We are promoting digital transactions very well. We have to look at other alternatives to operate (businesses),” Chua said.
Last week, Presidential Adviser and Go Negosyo founder Joey Concepcion said areas in Metro Manila that have high vaccination rates can be turned into “Bakuna Bubbles” where residents can move freely and enter establishments saying this can help the National Capital Region (NCR) and, eventually, the country to coexist with Covid-19.