IF rich countries will insist on their exclusive use of the first 2 billion doses of Covax vaccines, global Covid-19 deaths could double, according to the International Vaccine Institute (IVI).
Speaking at a plenary session at the second Southeast Asia Development Symposium (SEADS), IVI Director General Jerome Kim said 8.8 billion Covax vaccine doses have been reserved mainly by high-income countries.
Kim said this would mean that as much as $4 billion to $5 billion of the economic cost of the pandemic will still be borne by advanced countries if they focus on universal vaccination in their countries.
“Modeling suggests that exclusive use of the first two billion doses by high-income countries without some equity will double global deaths,” Kim said in a presentation.
Kim said in general, vaccine manufacturers have limited capacities. One reason is that while billions of vaccine doses can be manufactured, only a small portion have been approved by the World Health Organization (WHO).
Of the 12.6-billion Covid-19 vaccine doses that can be manufactured by pharmaceutical firms by the second half of 2021, only 5.2 billion have been approved by the WHO.
Less than half the vaccines that can be manufactured in 2022 and 2023 have secured WHO approval. In 2022, a total of 30.2 billion vaccine doses can be manufactured and in 2023, slightly higher at 31.5 billion.
However, only 11.2 billion doses for 2022 are WHO-approved products and 11.3 billion doses in 2023 are WHO-approved.
One fact, Kim said, that could be a silver lining is that efforts to produce vaccines are now being done through contracting and licensing agreements. These partnerships are making it possible for more vaccines to be produced.
“Through Covax, we actually have a facility now for near-concurrent access to innovative vaccine technology in the same year that it is introduced in high-income countries,” Kim said.
“Let’s not lose this mechanism as new vaccines are rolled out, as old vaccines are reaching only a proportion of the population that they need to reach. Let’s remember, we can do it for Covid-19 and we should be able to do it for other vaccine preventable infectious diseases,” he added.
Kim also said governments around the world should work toward and invest in lifetime universal immunization for all vaccine preventable infectious diseases.
This is important to remember given that there have been a number of forgotten diseases that could be prevented by vaccines but still do not have vaccines, he said.
These infectious diseases include HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, Group A Streptococcus, non-Typhoidal Salmonella, and Shigella, among others. Together, these diseases killed 50 million people between 2011 and 2020.
ADB earlier said the Philippines began its Covid-19 vaccination program on March 1, prioritizing healthcare workers. It has approved three vaccines, Pfizer-BioNTech, AZ/Oxford, and Sinovac, for emergency use but only the PRC’s donation of 600,000 doses of the Chinese vaccine has arrived in the country.
The first batch of 525,600 doses of the AZ/Oxford vaccine was supposed to be delivered on 1 March. The country has the second highest number of Covid-19 cases among Asean states at 576,352 as of 28 February. It plans to inoculate 70 million or more than 60 percent of its population this year.
The Philippines is relying on 44 million doses allocated by the Covax Facility for delivery within the year. In the first round of allocation, the country should be receiving 4,584,000 doses of AZ/Oxford between now and May. The Covax Facility list also indicated 117,000 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech, which is based on its interim distribution forecast as of 3 February.
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