PAHAYAG poll: 57% pick BBM for president; Sara leads VP race


PRESIDENTIAL aspirant Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. topped a recent independent and non-commissioned survey on preferred presidential candidates, according to a statement from the former senator’s camp.

The PAHAYAG FINAL LIST survey, which PUBLICUS ASIA INC. conducted from November 16 to November 18 — a day after the substitution deadline — showed Marcos leading across all regional groups with 56.7 percent compared to Leni Robredo’s 15.4 percent and Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso Moreno’s 6.9 percent.

Behind them are Senators Bong Go, 4.1 percent, Manny Pacquiao, 3.0 percent, and Panfilo Lacson, 2.9 percent.

Marcos held a commanding lead across all regional groups, maintaining his widest lead in North Central Luzon (NCL) 60.3 percent and Mindanao 70 percent.

The lead was narrowest in the National Capital Region and South Luzon, where Robredo polled above the 20-percent mark. Moreno is at third with 7 percent and Go at 4 percent, consistent with his previous numbers from earlier surveys conducted by PUBLICUS ASIA INC.

Comparatively speaking, Marcos posted a 7-percent gain from his previous numbers, polling around 49 percent.

Meanwhile, Robredo dropped by 6 percent because of lower scores in South Luzon (SL), Visayas, and Mindanao. She, however, maintained her numbers in NCR and SL.

Set preferences

Marcos also recorded the highest votes among respondents who are unlikely to change their preference, with at least 80 percent maintaining that they will definitely not change their choice.

Robredo posted similar numbers, with close to 60 percent of respondents indicating that they are set with their choice and another 18 percent indicating that they will likely not change their preference.

The other candidates polling on or above the 3-percent mark notched markedly lower “firmness” shares than Marcos and Robredo.

However, the conversion may prove difficult for many who have chosen a particular candidate. Across all candidates, most of those who are not viewed as “firm” in their choice indicated that they are 50-50 at best – rather than inclined to switch, suggesting that conversion may prove difficult moving forward.

Sara leads VP race

In the vice presidential poll, Davao City Mayor Sara “Inday” Duterte is leading over the rest of the field across all regions, with the widest margin in Mindanao, her bailiwick.

Her lead, however, is the narrowest in NCR and SL.

Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III is in second place at 10 percent, lower than his numbers in recent surveys.

The decline in Sotto’s numbers placed him in a virtual tie with Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan and Willie “Doc Willie” Ong – with all three polling close to 10 percent.

At least 42 percent of respondents indicated that they are either INDIFFERENT TO TANDEMS or PREFER SPLIT TICKETS. The majority (around 58 percent) indicated that they would prefer that their presidential and vice presidential picks belong to a tandem.

Around 42 percent chose the BBM-SARA Uniteam tandem, which is very popular in Mindanao (58 percent) and lowest in SL (30 percent).

The PAHAYAG FINAL LIST is a nationwide purposive sampling survey comprising 1,500 respondents from a market research panel of over 200,000 Filipinos maintained by the Singapore office of a US-based firm PURESPECTRUM.

The sample was restricted to registered voters, and the distribution was guided by parameters based on age, gender, and regional voter population statistics from the Commission on Elections.

Image courtesy of Roy Domingo/BM

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