Periods of cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that started in September 2024 continue to persist and further strengthened reaching La Niña conditions threshold in December 2024, as shown by the recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators. La Niña condition exist if a one-month sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) of -0.5°C or less is observed and an expectation that the 3-month SSTA (Oceanic Niño Index) of -0.5°C or less will be met (i.e., December-January-February (DJF), January-February-March (JFM)). It is likely that this La Niña condition will continue at least until JFM 2025 season as suggested by several climate models.
With this development, higher chances of above normal rainfall in January – February – March 2025 season is expected, which may cause floods, flashfloods and rain-induced landslides. Furthermore, increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the period is likely.
PAGASA will continue to monitor the country’s weather and climatic conditions. Meanwhile, the public and all concerned agencies are advised to monitor relevant PAGASA information regularly.
(Source: DOST PAGASA Press Release)