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Friday, March 29, 2024

‘In the shadow of China’s might’

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WITH China’s “physical” occupation of the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) and West Philippine Sea (WPS) and its determined efforts to fortify its presence there, proposals are being put forward for the military to reevaluate its ongoing modernization program and shift its procurement focus to the acquisition of hardware that can best secure and defend the country’s stakes in those territories.

Beijing has undisputably swarmed the maritime waters that it disputes against Manila with its Coast Guard and maritime militias, and even fishing vessels. This, while ensuring the sustained presence of its ships from the People’s Liberation Army-Navy in those areas that are dotted with features, although these maritime waters are located within the Philippines’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

While China is in physical control of the Scarborough Shoal near Zambales, it also exercises a de facto control of Sandy Cay, and is in possession of the Mischief Reef, which it has turned into a massive military base since first claiming in 1995 that it was simply building makeshift “fishermen shelters.” Its ships, especially those of its maritime militias, are permanent fixtures in other parts of the KIG and the WPS. By the count of the National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS)—as reported on Wednesday—at least 240 Chinese ships are still berthed in those two maritime waters, including at Julian Felipe Reef, which was used as a jumping board for 220 Chinese maritime militia vessels.

Needed weaponry

DR. Renato de Castro, an international relations professor from the Dela Salle University and a trustee of the Stratbase Albert del Rosario Institute, said the maritime militia is part of China’s three-layered sea force, which includes its Navy and the Coast Guard.

Given the undeclared “invasion” of the Chinese military of the KIG and WPS and the long-standing problem of territorial security there, former Philippine Navy vice commander retired Rear Admiral Rommel Ong said the Armed Forces of the Philippines must readjust its defense posture, the primary focus of which is the acquisition of a “game changer” military package that has an immediate impact in the SCS.

Ong, who is now a professor of praxis at the Ateneo de Manila University’s School of Government and executive director of the Security Reform Initiative, said the military must hasten the acquisition of Indian-made Brahmos supersonic missile and other platforms.

The military’s defense acquisition program under its remaining Horizon 2 and 3 projects follows a system where assets and equipment are set and identified before they are fixed for procurement, with the end goal of having a modern and fully equipped force.

However, Ong doubted whether the Horizon 2 and 3 were still viable, given that the country is currently being ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic, burying the government in trillions of pesos in debt.

‘In limbo’

DR. Chester Cabalza, president and founder of the International Development and Security Cooperation, said the government’s defense spending is currently at 1.4 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

With the acquisition program already uncertain, Ong, who served in the Navy for 30 years, said the military must turn its focus to the KIG and WPS and hasten the acquisition of weapons that are needed to defend them.

Ong described the military’s procurement as in “limbo, as in the last five years.”

According to him, it did not help that President Duterte took a “pro-China policy,” which he described as a “failure,” although he admits there is still a need to engage Beijing.

Cabalza, on the other hand, said that other than acquiring weapons, what the military needs is a good concept of defense and strategy, including for the KIG and WPS.

Liz Derr, president and co-founder of the US-based technology and research company Simularity, said that if the Philippines wanted to keep and protect its EEZ, then it must defend it and move to occupy the features within its waters, otherwise other states would take them.

How serious are we?

“If you’re serious about protecting your sovereignty and your people, you need to actively monitor, patrol and occupy features in your EEZ,” she stressed.

Derr, whose company had mapped the SCS and the activities of its contending claimants, said that Vietnam alone outnumbered the Philippines “one is to three” in building outposts in the areas that it claims.

A Vietnamese outpost that she showed during Wednesday’s virtual forum of the Stratbase Albert del Rosario Institute was what she called as “DK1,” which is made of two structures that tower above the water and even has a helipad.

Compared with the coast guards of other countries in the region, Derr noted that the Philippine Coast Guard is the only one that is not “authorized to make defense when confronted.”

She prodded the country to secure its EEZ and ensure that “no more features are taken.”

Derr said that at least 27 features within the country’s EEZ in the South China Sea were not yet occupied by the Philippines until now.

She listed the key features as: Hopps Reef, Sabina Shoal, Southern Banks, Hardy Reef, Boxall Reef, Iroquois Reef, Hopkins Reef, Third Thomas Shoal, Jackson Atoll, Livock Reef, Alicia Annie Reef, Empire Reef, Jones Reef, Higgens Reef, Holiday Reef and Hallet Reef.

Other uninhabited areas are: Pennsylvania South Reef, Southern Banks, McKennan Reef, Edmund Reef, Loveless Reef, Director Reef, Half Moon Shoal, Bombay Shoal, Northeast Investigator Shoal, Royal Captain Shoal, and Seahorse Shoal.

Constructing structures in these areas, such as lighthouses, can be done inexpensively “without provoking war,” Derr said, noting that the Philippines has been very weak in protecting its territory compared to other claimants.

“If the Philippines occupies the unoccupied Spratlys features in its EEZ, with some research into prioritizing which to occupy and what the best level of occupation is, their EEZ will be protected,” she said.

The presence of Philippine-built structures in the area will also protect Filipino fishermen and defend their right to continue fishing within the country’s waters.

“If this weakness continues, we will surely see more features being occupied by foreign countries,” Derr warned.

Indeed, the continuing signs of weakness are obviously the key drivers of Beijing’s expansionist designs in the West Philippine Sea.

And, while the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) has served notice it will never tire of lodging protests against such blatant violations of international law—a necessary move to show the Philippines did not sleep on its rights—the defense and security establishment apparently needs to up the ante, and fast. The Asian giant has cast a shadow over the country’s food sustainability, and while no shots have been fired, the continued hollowing out of the nation’s precious resources by hundreds of vessels daily can kill just as well.

As DFA Secretary Teodoro L. Locsin Jr. said in a tweet, “The really bad news is NOT that they’re swarming as a prelude to legal possession—legally impossible; they really are fishing—everything in the water that belongs by law to us: fish, clams, and in such big quantities as to wipe out sustainability.”

In short,  no invasion, just a raid of the national refrigerator. A policy clearly enunciated by then Chinese President Jiang Zemin to a high-level Philippine congressional delegation that raised the matter of the Mischief Reef “shelters” in 1995. With all conviction, Mr. Jiang told his guests, he was puzzled by the complaints of Filipinos, because China is not invading them. And then added, that if one had to feed a billion people, it would search as far as it can for the resources for such. The purpose was clear 26 years ago, it seems, when the “shelters” predated the military fortresses and island-building spree.

The logical countermove? Stop the raiding, padlock the ref, before the locals go hungry—but with what?  That’s another story.

With earlier reports by Recto L. Mercene and Butch Fernandez

Read full article on BusinessMirror

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