THE Department of Agriculture (DA) has revised downward its full-year growth target for the country’s farm production this year to 1 percent from 2 percent following a 2.6-percent contraction in agricultural output in the third quarter.
Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano said the 2-percent full-year farm growth will not be achieved this year given the contraction posted in the third quarter, the fourth consecutive quarter of decline.
The contraction in the third quarter is the lowest growth rate during a July-to-September period in the past seven years or since the 2.9-percent contraction record in the third quarter of 2014.
The 2 percent full-year growth target was already a revision from the department’s initial target of 2.5 percent set at the start of the year.
From January to September, the value of the country’s agricultural production plunged by 2.5 percent—the steepest decline in 11 years—as livestock and poultry production woes hound overall agricultural performance, negating gains in the crops sector. (Related story: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2021/11/08/january-september-farm-output-sinks-to-11-year-low/)
“There might be some difficulty in meeting the target of 2 percent given the contraction of the sector [in the third quarter]. I think there will be a recovery in the last quarter of this year,” Adriano said in a virtual press briefing on Tuesday.
“The full-year growth will hover in the vicinity of a 1-percent increase. If the growth rate of the livestock sector was flat, we would have registered more than 2-percent growth rate this year given the good performance of the crops sector,” he added.
The agriculture official said strong performance from the crops sector, barring typhoons, and anticipated increase in demand for food by Filipinos, would drive the farm sector to post a “modest” recovery growth in the fourth quarter. Farm output in the fourth quarter of last year contracted by 3.8 percent compared to the October-to-December period of 2019.
Adriano said they now see signs of recovery in the hogs sector, the primary driver of overall livestock production, as commercial raisers start to repopulate their farms.
“We are seeing some repopulation activities in the commercial farms for the main reasons that they can handle the costs or absorb the costs of biosecurity measures,” he said.
“The biggest problem, however, are the backyard raisers which constitute the biggest of the hog sector, about two-thirds. They cannot afford the biosecurity measures, that’s why we are thinking of clustering them,” he added.
Agriculture Undersecretary William C. Medrano said the commercial hog raisers have repopulated about 29,000 sows, based on the department’s latest survey.
PSA data also showed that production of all subsectors (livestock, poultry and fisheries), except crops, declined from January to September, with the livestock subsector posting a 19.4-percent contraction. Poultry production declined by 1.3 percent while fisheries output fell slightly by 0.5 percent year-on-year, based on PSA data.
In the view of the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food Inc. (PCAFI) President Danilo V. Fausto, the contraction in agriculture output was primarily caused by the challenges from the Covid-19 pandemic such as disrupted supply chains and low purchasing power of Filipinos.
The situation, Fausto pointed out, was worsened by recent typhoons in the third quarter that battered the northern part of Luzon, where abundant crops, including corn, are located. These contracted 18.6 percent during the period.
“The Department of Agriculture’s target of 2 percent full-year growth this year is wishful thinking. I think full-year agriculture output would decline by 1 percent to 2 percent,” he earlier told the BusinessMirror.
“We expect better crop harvest in the fourth quarter coupled by an anticipated pick-up in consumer demand as quarantine restrictions eased,” he added.