THE projected daily active cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may decrease to 1,731 from 3,897 by October 31 if a shorter period of four-day detection to isolation will be imposed, the Department of Health (DOH) said on Monday.
“In the National Capital Region, projections were made if we continue Alert Level 4 or if we de-escalate to Alert Level 3. Projections were also made assuming two scenarios from the detection to isolation time,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said, citing the first scenario in August where the detection to isolation is longer at six days. The other scenario is a shorter period of detection to isolation, which is four days.
Meanwhile, 3,211-3,605 daily cases are expected if the NCR is de-escalated to Alert Level 3.
“However, if the detection to isolation time is again prolonged just like what we have observed in August [6 days], daily cases may decrease to 2,195 daily cases under Alert Level 4 while 4,061- 4,557 daily cases are expected if Alert Level 3 is imposed,” Vergeire added.
“This further supports our call to focus [on] reducing the time between detection and isolation and not to only rely on measures that restrict mobility,” she noted.
The DOH officials said that they observed a similar trend in the active case projections.
“If our detection and isolation time is maintained at four days, active cases in the National Capital Region may decrease to 10,100 cases by October 31, if Alert Level 4 is continued, while we expect about 13,471-14,672 active cases when Alert Level 3 will be imposed,” she explained.
However, she added, if detection to isolation time is again prolonged, active cases may decrease to 11, 779, under Alert Level 4. An increase of 16,332-17,967 active cases is projected if Alert Level 3 is imposed.
On Monday the DOH logged 8,292 additional Covid-19 cases, 302 recoveries and 36 deaths. The cumulative Covid cases in the country stood at 2,674,814.