THE World Trade Organization (WTO) upgraded its world merchandise trade growth outlook to nearly 11 percent for this year, shrugging off supply chain concerns amid the resurgence of economic activities in the first half.
In a recent statement, the WTO said the global merchandise trade volume is now anticipated to book 10.8-percent growth this year, which is better than the previous prediction of 8 percent in March.
This figure is seen dwindling to 4.7 percent next year. However, the new figure is still higher than the 4-percent forecast earlier. The intergovernmental organization noted that “growth should moderate as merchandise trade approaches its pre-pandemic long-run trend.”
“Supply-side issues such as semiconductor scarcity and port backlogs may strain supply chains and weigh on trade in particular areas, but they are unlikely to have large impacts on global aggregates,” WTO stressed.
To recall, a global chip shortage has affected several sectors, including the automotive industry. The lack of vessel space amid the container imbalance, meanwhile, has resulted in shipment delays across the world, impacting both the production and distribution of finished goods.
While WTO sees overall increase in trade this year, it noted the uneven growth across the economies, especially because some developing regions are below the global average.
For example, Asian imports are projected to grow by 9.4 percent while least-developed countries will see a decline of 1.6 percent.
“Trade has been a critical tool in combatting the pandemic, and this strong growth underscores how important trade will be in underpinning the global economic recovery,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said. “But inequitable access to vaccines is exacerbating economic divergence across regions.”
“The longer vaccine inequity is allowed to persist, the greater the chance that even more dangerous variants of Covid-19 will emerge, setting back the health and economic progress we have made to date,” she stressed.
As such, she urged the WTO members to have quicker vaccine production and distribution to make economic recovery sustainable.
WTO also revised its global gross domestic product outlook to 5.3 percent from 5.1 percent previously. The figure is expected to slow down to 4.1 percent in 2022.
As of July, the Philippines registered a total trade of $106.097 billion, which is higher by 25.8 percent than last year’s $84.32 billion, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority. Broken down, imports grew by 30.2 percent to $63.7 billion while exports improved by 19.7 percent to $42.39 billion in the first seven months.