THE government is now working to further bring down high inflation and ensure a social protection floor (SPF) framework will be in place to minimize the economic impact of El Niño, which is expected to severely affect the country by the last quarter of the year.
In a press conference in Malacañang on Thursday, NEDA Director General Arsenio M. Balisacan stressed the importance of keeping inflation in check before the arrival of El Niño, which will cut agricultural production, leading to higher prices for basic goods.
“The elevated inflation that we have now, if we are unable to reduce that inflation, and then you get this El Niño phenomenon—that is a dangerous combination and we want to prevent that from happening,” Balisacan said.
The country remains exposed to economic and environmental risks, including climate change, supply chain disruptions, and job losses—which could prevent the most vulnerable in society from coping with these challenges. Institutionalizing an SPF would reduce these risks for the most vulnerable, he asserted.
“The intention is to institutionalize the existing programs, especially those that have been proven to work so that we don’t have to restart all over again when there is a need to provide support to vulnerable groups,” Balisacan explained on Thursday.
Currently, he said the country has already brought inflation to a “downward trajectory.”
“We are actively monitoring the situation and implementing the necessary measures to ensure that by the end of the year, we should be on our target of roughly around 4 percent and at 3.5 to 4 percent,” Balisacan said.
Headline inflation rate in January was at 8.7 percent before slowing down to 8.6 percent in February and 7.6 percent last March.
Mitigation measures
The NEDA official said soaring inflation worsened by El Niño will be particularly detrimental for the poor.
The SPF framework endorsed by the Social Development Committee of the Cabinet, he said, will help ensure the marginalized remain protected during El Niño and future crises.
NEDA said the framework will institutionalize the existing programs of the government “that aim to prevent or alleviate poverty vulnerability and social exclusion.”
He recalled that they had been pitching social protection earlier, since 2014, so that “when you have events like that, we prevent people from falling into poverty,” because, he noted, “once they fall, it’s extremely difficult for them to go up and we don’t want that.”
He urged concerned government agencies to put in place all measures to mitigate the impact of El Niño this year using their existing resources under the 2023 national budget.
“Of course the next step is to look at the budget and how it [mitigation measures] can, for example, influence the budget allocation for 2024,” Balisacan said.
On Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the country is expected to suffer the worst effects of El Niño during the last quarter of the year or the first quarter of 2024.
4 guarantees
Balisacan said the SPF consists of four basic guarantees that cover the entire life cycle—health, including maternity care; children; active age; and older persons.
In a phone interview with BusinessMirror, Neda Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon explained that during discussions on the SPF, it was found that existing social protection schemes in the country, though effective, need to be enhanced.
One example: teenage mothers and their children or informal sector workers need social protection as their incomes may not be enough for their families.
There are also Filipinos who do not receive assistance from the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program but remain vulnerable to various risks, she added.
Through the institutionalization of the SPF, these gaps in social protection will be addressed. Efforts to address them will be done in phases, Edillon said, and will be subject to the availability of financing.
Edillon said enhancing programs will also include safeguards such as in the extension of unemployment insurance. Filipinos who lose their jobs will be eligible for assistance if they are actively seeking employment or are enrolled in some form of training, retraining, or upskilling program.
“Today’s approval of the government Social Protection Floor is a significant progress in our country’s development history. This is a manifestation of the government’s commitment to significantly reduce poverty incidence and promote inclusive growth,” Balisacan said.
Project evaluation
In a separate statement, Neda underscored the importance of building local expertise on impact evaluation and producing evidence and studies that will inform the implementation and updating of the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028.
Neda, in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP in the Philippines,) and the Development Academy of the Philippines (DAP), initiated the Capacity Development Program on Impact Evaluation for CY 2023, which commenced on April 17, 2023. Participants include representatives from NEDA regional offices (NROs) and state universities and colleges (SUCs).
In his opening statement, NEDA Undersecretary Carlos Bernardo O. Abad Santos emphasized the need for additional evaluation experts to bridge the widening gap between the demand and supply for impact evaluations.
“We are witnessing an increasing demand for impact evaluations from policy-makers, legislators, development partners, and government agencies who seek to gather more evidence to improve policies and programs. On the other hand, our supply of evaluation experts is insufficient to meet the demand,” he said.
NEDA Undersecretary Joseph J. Capuno likewise emphasized the importance of impact evaluation in providing an evidence-based understanding of the effectiveness of government interventions.
“When conducting impact evaluations, you generate evidence, and that evidence can often be surprising. It might align with your expectations, but at times it can deviate from them. The evidence is what it is, and you can learn from it; how the real world works,” he said.
Meanwhile, Selva Ramachandran, the UNDP Philippines Resident Representative, asserted that the findings of evaluations can offer solutions to tackle both new and recurring development challenges.
“Far from being just an intellectual exercise, impact evaluation adds rigor to the quality of policy making and design of government interventions,” he said.
Mitchell Castillon, an attending representative from NRO Caraga (Region 13), recognized the potential of impact evaluation as a valuable tool for monitoring and evaluating the regional development plan (RDP) of Caraga.
“I believe that impact evaluation will be crucial in assessing the effectiveness of the programs and projects proposed in RDP Caraga, to determine whether they are achieving the objectives outlined in the plan,” he said.
During the event, Dr. Rupert Deluna, a professor at the University of Southeastern Philippines and one of the SUC representatives in attendance, shared his perspective on the role of the academe in impact evaluation.
“Academia already possesses the necessary capabilities to conduct impact assessments, and we also have a research mandate to do so. Partnership between the academe and NEDA will make conducting impact evaluations easier in terms of access to the skills and resources needed for it,” he said.
This capacity development program was made possible through the NEDA-UNDP Strategic Monitoring and Evaluation Project and the FY 2023 Monitoring & Evaluation Fund.
The first phase of the capacity development program will be conducted from April 17, 2023, until April 28, 2023. During these two weeks, participants will attend courses on impact evaluation facilitated by various invited experts in the field. An Executive Course will also be conducted from April 20-21, 2023 to be participated in by Regional Directors (RDs) and OIC-RDs or their respective Assistant Regional Directors (ARDs)/OIC-ARDs.
By the end of the program, each region is expected to develop a proposal for an impact evaluation study. Up to eight proposals will be selected to receive funding for implementation.
Image credits: Suzanne June G. Perante