AS nations in Southeast Asia face threats of delayed recovery due to surges in Covid-19 cases, Moody’s Analytics said their outlook for the Philippine economy is taking a turn for the better due to the decline in cases in recent weeks.
In a recent analysis on Southeast Asia’s economic recovery, Moody’s Analytics—the research arm of Moody’s Group—said the resurgence in Covid-19 cases in countries “keeps denting” the region’s path to recovery.
Moody’s Analytics economist Katrina Ell, however, said that the Philippines bucks that trend as the country saw a decline of fresh cases in recent weeks.
“Spikes in Covid-19 infections in Indonesia and Malaysia are taking wind out of the expectation that economic recoveries there will gather steam into 2022. Meanwhile, the outlook for the Philippines has improved as the pace of new coronavirus cases has declined,” Ell said.
In June this year, Moody’s Analytics tagged the Philippine economy’s situation as “worrisome” as the country’s battles the resurgence of the virus, particularly in key areas in the National Capital Region (NCR) and surrounding cities.
On Monday, the Department of Health (DOH) said the total number of cases in the country reached 1,441,746 after 5,392 new cases were confirmed during the day.
“The outlook for the Philippines has improved. The country has seen a decline in daily new infections after breaking records in the region earlier this year. New cases fell from a peak of more than 11,000 daily to half that level now,” Ell said.
The economist also said that the country’s retail activities are expected to gradually pick up in line with eased restrictions from mid-July.
“Declining Covid-19 cases in the Philippines pave the way for its economic recovery as retail activities start to pick up. However, the country needs to step up its vaccination efforts, as the sluggish campaign leaves it vulnerable to fresh resurgences,” Ell said.
The Philippines’s improving outlook comes in contrast with key economies in the region.
“The coronavirus wave is raging in parts of Southeast Asia, with Indonesia and Malaysia seeing an unprecedented surge in daily infections. Indonesia reported a record high of 24,836 new infections on Thursday. The spike since late June came after the Eid al-Fitr holidays, which saw mass movement of migrant workers,” Ell said.
“Malaysia trails this number, but daily new infections continued to exceed the 6,000 mark. In both cases, this development takes wind out of the expectation that these economic recoveries will gather steam into 2022. The bottom line is that until infections are under control, movement control orders of varying severity will be imposed and will hurt domestic demand,” the economist added.