Power transmission grid operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) has warned of thin power supply in the summer months because of higher forecasted demand at 13,125 megawatts (MW).
The NGCP said the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasted a total peak demand of 13,125MW for Luzon to occur towards the end of May, an 8.35 percent increase from the actual 2022 peak load of 12,113MW which occurred on May 12, 2022.
For Visayas, the peak demand occurred in September, while in Mindanao, the peak demand occurred in June. A 16.19 percent increase in demand is forecasted for Visayas this year at 2,691MW, while a 10.52 percent increase is expected for Mindanao at 2,395MW.
Thin operating margins from where ancillary services, or power used to manage and balance the grid, are taken, are forecasted for this year. Operating margin is the power in excess of demand. For the Luzon grid, these are forecasted from April to June due to the historically high demand during the summer months.
While base case projections show no occurrence of “yellow” or “red” alerts, there are weeks between March and April where operating margins are below required levels due to higher demand and planned outages of plants, if any.
NGCP said it coordinates the preparation and submission to the DOE of an annual Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP), a consolidated preventive maintenance schedule of power plants, with consideration for the needed supply to meet the projected demand.
The 2023 GOMP was approved by the DOE on December 27, 2022. “In compliance with the DOE directive, no maintenance shutdowns were scheduled during the summer months,” NGCP said.
The grid operator assured that it coordinates with the generation and distribution sectors to optimize and rationalize maintenance schedules to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year.
“Unplanned shutdowns, which are outside of the GOMP, may still have a significant impact on the supply demand profile if, as in the past years, several power plants simultaneously shut down outside of its schedule,” NGCP said.
A yellow alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s regulating and contingency requirement, which is at 668MW each. A red alert status is issued when supplies are insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement.
“While the GOMP is formulated to ensure adequacy of supply especially during the critical months, there are instances of forced or unplanned outages of plants which may disrupt the normal operations of the grid and warrant the issuance of yellow or red alerts. As transmission service provider, NGCP can only give an overview of the current supply and demand situation, and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation,” said NGCP.
To alleviate possible power shortages, NGCP is appealing to policy makers to immediately explore demand side management (DSM) strategies to mitigate any possible supply issues in the coming summer months.
The DOE has been pushing for DSM programs for various sectors to soften the impact of any power supply tightness. These are initiatives meant to encourage consumers to optimize their energy consumption.
“We should not look at demand-side management as only a band-aid solution. Instead, it should be a natural element embedded already in our entire management system,” DOE Secretary Raphael Lotilla said.
“If our consumption becomes more efficient, that means we will no longer have to run diesel-fired power plants that are more expensive,” had said.
The Manila Electric Company (Meralco), for instance, wants more of its large customers to sign up for its Interruptible Load Program (ILP).
The ILP is a DSM program wherein participants will be asked to temporarily de-load from the grid and use their generator sets when there is supply deficiency and power interruptions are imminent.
In this case, the ILP participants may run their facilities to allow more grid capacity to serve other customers.
According to the DOE, the DSM programs for various sector focuses on the utilization of efficient equipment and appliances, and the promotion and implementation of policies and programs that best fit each industry.
For the commercial sector, the utilization of energy-efficient equipment such as inverter-type air conditioners and LED lightings is being promoted. Further, the promotion of the energy-labeling program will ensure informed decisions of households regarding the energy performance and efficiency of all household appliances.