In scenarios where the current mobility and compliance to minimum public health standards (MPHS) were maintained, active Covid-19 cases in the country may continue to decline and may range from 12,264 to 12,584 by end of November, and 6,071 to 7,301 by December 15, the projections of the Department of Health (DOH) showed.
However, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire warned that an uptrend of active cases was observed in scenarios where there is increased mobility from 95 percent to 98 percent and a corresponding decrease in the compliance to MPHS by 22 to 24 percent.
In these scenarios, she warned, active cases may reach up to 18,338 to 19,210 by the end of November and 15,956 to 20,649 by mid-December.
“The estimated active cases in these scenarios were 1.5 times higher by the end of November and 2.6 times higher by December 15 when compared to the scenarios where the compliance to MPHS was maintained,” Vergeire said.
Likewise, a similar observation was made with the National Capital Region projections.
“Projected active cases for NCR will continue to decline and may be at 2,391 to 2,402 cases as of November 30 and 1,241 to 1,355 as of December 15 when current mobility and MPHS compliance are maintained,” she said
If mobility increases to 88 percent to 83 percent coupled with MPHS compliance, Vergeire said, reduction by 26 percent to 33 percent, active cases may reach up to 2,711 to 3,036 cases by the end of November and 1,843 to 2,691 cases by Mid-December.
On Saturday, the DOH logged 1,474 additional Covid-19 cases with 2,565 recoveries and 205 deaths.
The total number of infections in the country stood at 2,824,499.