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Domestic tourism’s recovery in 2023 at earliest, 2024 at worst

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By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo / Special to the BusinessMirror

THE Department of Tourism (DOT) is forecasting the recovery of the domestic travel  sector by 2023 at the earliest, when demand returns to 90 percent of the 2019 level, and at worst, by 2024, when demand returns to the 2019 level.

In its reformulated National Tourism Development Plan for 2021-2022, the DOT also indicated under a medium or harsh scenario, partial recovery may happen in 2023, when demand returns to 70 percent of  the 2019 level.

It also targeted domestic trips to grow to 75 million this year from the 43.1 million estimated for 2020, and 100 million in 2022. Both targets are under the upside or mild scenario.

Under a medium/harsh scenario, domestic trips may reach 36.5 million in 2021, and 84.8 million in 2022. Under a downside/severe scenario, domestic trips may only hit 14.1 million this year, and 18.8 million in 2022. Domestic trips in 2019, before Covid-19 wreaked havoc on the global and local tourism industry, was recorded at 109.8 million, already breaking the 89.2-million targeted for 2022, in the earlier NTDP 2016-2022.

Under a severe scenario, the DOT forecast the ineffective containment of Covid-19 while major destinations continue to be under strict quarantine, restricted cross-border travel due to “surges,” very weak investment appetite with hotel rooms still dedicated to Covid-19 quarantines, poor implementation of health and safety protocols along with lower travel demand due to restrictions, and air seat capacities are just 30 percent of pre-Covid levels.

Gargantuan task

With the recent report by the Philippine Statistics Authority of the 61.2-percent contraction in the Tourism Direct Gross Value Added (TDGVA) in 2020, the already reformulated NTDP targets for 2021-2022 may yet again be revised downward. DOT Spokesman and Undersecretary for Tourism Development Benito C. Bengzon Jr. told the BusinessMirror, “We will review [the targets] with the team.”

On Wednesday, the PSA reported TDGVA falling to P973.31 billion last year, from  P2.51 trillion in 2019.  This is only 5.4 percent of  the industry’s contribution to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), a steep decline from the 12.8 percent in 2019. (See, “PSA: Worst performance for tourism courtesy of Covid,” in the BusinessMirror, June 17, 2021.)

In a news statement, Tourism Secretary Bernadette Romulo Puyat said, “The dismal figures reflect the gargantuan challenge that the DOT and the entire tourism industry is faced today. This compels us to explore all means possible, within the imposed government restrictions, to facilitate the gradual recovery of the tourism industry.”

Revenue may reach P3B in 2022, or not…

The DOT pins hopes of a recovery in the tourism sector on domestic  travel with many overseas source markets still closed, and the Philippines’s own travel restrictions, meant to contain the spread of Covid-19.

Under the reformulated NTDP 2021-2022, the DOT also targeted revenue from domestic trips at some P2.2 trillion in 2021 and almost P3 billion in 2022 (mild scenario), P1.06 trillion in 2021 and P2.53 billion in 2022 (harsh), or P442 billion in 2021 and P603 billion in 2022 (severe). Domestic revenue was recorded at P3.14 trillion, pre-pandemic, in 2019.

For the next two years, the DOT chief stressed, the Philippines will be positioned as a “safe, fun, and competitive destination rooted in strong partnerships with communities and visitors. This will be achieved by developing and marketing portfolio of products that harness the natural and cultural endowments to benefit the present and future tourism generation.”

Read full article on BusinessMirror

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